Monday, June 08, 2009
India can surprise the world that it can move ahead even in this global recession period
The growth rate for the global economies since 45 years has shown towards 3.7%. Now the prediction is about half of it. Historically whenever the global growth rate has gone below the threshold of 2.5%, global recession has happened. The global growth trend is likely to be at less than 2% over the next 3 years.
1 It may be sub prime crises/indebtedness/war; the world growth rate has fallen below 2.5%, resulting in global recession.
2 American consumer is the highest purchasing consumer in the world. America accounts 4.5% of world's population, consumed $10 trillion in 2008.Consumers in India and China combined close to 40% of the world population collectively consumed $2 trillion ! Over the next 3 to 5 years the growth rate of consumption in US won't go more than 1.5%; a dramatic slow down from the pre recession period norm of 4%.
3 It is predicted by economists that it is unnatural to think that India can go back to growth rates above 8% in the current environment; it will take next 2 to 3 years (2010to 2011) to reach that mark.
4 India has massive capital and high budget deficits. The stable Government of Indian can take firm decisions to iron out the recession. It can economise on expenditures. Raise resources.Accelerate the manufacturing sector to grow at a much faster rate. India can surprise the world that it can move ahead even in this recession period
